When Will Fort Worth’s Population Reach 1 Million?
by John Egan
February 13, 2017
Fort Worth, TX, already has shot past the 800,000 mark for population -- a noteworthy feat on its own. Now, inquiring minds want to know when the city’s population will soar to 1 million.
No one in Fort Worth has a firm prediction for when the city’s population will reach 1 million. In fact, city officials expect that based on current growth patterns, Fort Worth will hit the 1 million mark anywhere from 2020 to 2025.
However, a new data analysis by LawnStarter’s research team finds Fort Worth’s headcount should reach 1 million in 2023 -- only six years from now.
To come up with our projection, we looked at Fort Worth’s annual population growth rates for 2010 through 2015. The population data comes from the U.S. Census Bureau. For the 2010-2015 period, we calculated an average annual growth rate of 2.37 percent.
Relying on the 2.37 percent annual growth rate, we projected Fort Worth’s population for the 2020-2025 time span. Our formula indicates the city will be home to 1,005,062 residents in April 2023. That would be a 20.6 increase from the 2015 population of 833,319.
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Our forecast aligns with a guess from Fort Worth economic development consultant David Berzina, CEO of Insights EDC, that the city will see the 1 million milestone happen in 2023 or 2024. Brenda Hicks-Sorensen, assistant director of economic development for the City of Fort Worth, says it’s conceivable that the city’s population will arrive at 1 million in 2023.
“There has been some thought that we may even hit 1 million by 2020. However, we have officially been saying between 2020 and 2025 because it is so difficult to say for certain what it will actually be,” Hicks-Sorensen says.
As it stands now, Fort Worth is the 16th largest city in the U.S. and the fifth largest in Texas. If Fort Worth’s population stood at 1 million today, it would be the 11th largest city in the U.S., knocking Austin, TX, from that spot. In addition, Fort Worth would unseat Austin as the fourth largest city in Texas.
Fort Worth Mayor Betsy Price says the city gains one new resident every 24 minutes.
According to the Census Bureau, Fort Worth was the fastest-growing big city (at least 500,000 residents) from 2000 to 2010, notching an annual growth rate of 3.9 percent. At a recent Fort Worth City Council work session, Mayor Betsy Price said the city now gains one new resident every 24 minutes.
Berzina says Fort Worth’s population keeps rising thanks to affordable, available land and a deep talent pool “all wrapped inside a pro-business mindset from top down and bottom up.” Berzina is former executive vice president of economic development at the Fort Worth Chamber of Commerce.
Hicks-Sorensen says other advantages for Fort Worth include the area’s high concentration of Fortune 500 companies, solid transportation infrastructure, low cost of living and good quality of life.
“The region’s central location in the United States and proximity to Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport -- the fourth busiest airport in the world -- make Fort Worth a gateway city to the world,” Hicks-Sorenson says.
As a result of more people flowing into this North Texas gateway, the City of Fort Worth issued more building permits in 2016 (12,853) than it had since 2006 (14,876), according to Hicks-Sorenson. The breakdown of permit activity in 2016 was 9,522 residential, 803 multifamily and 2,528 commercial permits.
That level of growth isn’t confined to Fort Worth, either.
“Neighboring cities like Burleson, Mansfield and Arlington are also seeing solid growth, so the west and east sides of the Metroplex are still growing in rapid fashion,” Berzina says.
At a recent Fort Worth City Council work session, Councilman Sal Espino expressed concern about the way his city is growing. He says too many subdivisions with single-family homes are being developed in Fort Worth -- causing roadway gridlock -- while too few commercial and retail projects are being built. “We need a better mix,” Espino said.
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